SpaceX reports after the bell: AI spending and financing are the numbers to watch
SpaceX reports third-quarter results after the US market closes on Tuesday, only its second report as a public company. Revenue is expected to jump, but Wall Street's focus is on how much the company is spending on AI and how it will pay for it.
The stock going in
Yahoo Finance said SpaceX shares fell nearly 30% from their $150 debut price in the first weeks of trading. They recovered during the third quarter and now trade around the debut price.
What analysts expect
| Metric | Q3 estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7bn | $7.8bn in Q2 |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.15 | Yahoo Finance preview |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $6.59bn | Yahoo Finance preview |
| Connectivity revenue (incl. Starlink) | $4.45bn | $1.66bn operating profit expected |
Source: Yahoo Finance preview; revenue figure is Bloomberg consensus.
The AI question
The AI unit, now called SpaceXSI, is the swing factor. Last quarter it posted a $1.26 billion operating loss, smaller than the $2.39 billion analysts expected. But AI spending more than doubled from the first quarter.
Yahoo said the worry is that spending on data centres such as Colossus and AI products like Grok keeps growing. The question is whether SpaceX can raise enough money to fund it.
Need for additional financing remains a key overhang for sentiment, especially given the recent neocloud debt saga.
| Year | Modelled debt issuance |
|---|---|
| 2027 | $60bn |
| 2028 | $80bn |
| 2029 | $90bn |
Source: Morgan Stanley note via Yahoo Finance.
Jonas added that a world where SpaceX cannot raise money "likely has much broader implications for the economy."
Other things to watch
